^ Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

06.02.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: Buy from: 06.02.2025 Target price: EUR 12.50 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch

FY'25e outlook: RE recovery and new mid-term targets

Solid Q4 results at top end of FY'24 guidance ahead: For Q4 results (due Mar' 13th), we expect sales to arrive flat yoy at EUR 289m, whereas EBIT should expand by 11% to EUR 28m as we expect lower D&A of EUR 9m (vs. EUR 12m in Q4'23, thereof EUR 4m goodwill impairment at Deutschland.Immobilien). This puts our FY'24e EBIT estimate of EUR 95m (+33% yoy), at the top-end of the new FY'24 guidance range of EUR 85-95m.

20% dividend increase likely: Given MLP's target payout ratio of 50-70% (eNuW: 60%) and our estimated EPS of EUR 0.64, we expect FY'24 dividend proposal of EUR 0.36 per share (+ 20% yoy; 6% yield). Mind you, the dividend is tax-free under § 27 KStG.

Old mid-term targets to become new FY'25e guidance: This year, MLP's mid-term targets of EUR 100-110m EBIT (eNuW: EUR 102m), EUR 62-68bn AuM (eNuW: EUR 63bn) and a non-life insurance volume of EUR 730-810m (eNuW: EUR 780m) are due and will become the FY'25e guidance, which should be well in reach.

New mid-term targets to be announced: Also on March 13th, MLP will announce new mid-term targets, which the CFO said are 'as ambitious as the previous mid-term targets', potentially serving as a share price catalyst.

Changing mix in EBIT drivers for FY'25e: While FY'24e EBIT stood under an strong contribution from performance fees (eNuW: EUR 28m; 9M'24: EUR 26m), we do not assume a similar development for FY'25e although it could be possible. On the other hand, the still negative real estate segment Deutschland.Immobilien (eNuW: EUR -14m EBIT in FY'24e), should benefit from a noticeable market recovery (e.g. the recent announcement of a brokerage partnership with Dutch RE developer Ten Brinke Group for a EUR 160m RE portfolio). As confirmed by management multiple times and also expected by us, this segment is seen to return to EBIT breakt-even in FY'25e (eNuW: EUR 16m EBIT increase from RE). The remaining segments should show similar profitabilies in FY'25e, except for FERI, whose FY'24 EBIT will mark a tough comparable base due to the EUR 18m EBIT effect of performance fees (eNuW) in FY'24e and us not assuming significant performance fees for FY'25e. - see p. 2 for details

Following the operational development, MLP's valuation should catch up accordingly. Therefore, the stock remains one of our Alpha Ideas and we reiterate out BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 12.50, based on FCFY'24e and SOTP.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31711.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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2082069 06.02.2025 CET/CEST

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Quelle: dpa-Afx