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Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG

Company Name: USU Software AG ISIN: DE000A0BVU28

Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY from: 07.03.2024 Target price: 30.00 Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten Last rating change: Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March 28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4, partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously growing SaaS sales. Q4 sales are seen coming in at EUR 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect to come in at EUR 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license sales (eNuW: EUR 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of '23 following prolonged sales cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of 20% yoy to EUR 4.6m. Overall, FY '23 sales are seen at EUR 133m, hence meeting the lower end of the company's guidance (EUR 132-139m). While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at EUR 4.3m, indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to EUR 13.1m, thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (EUR 13-15m) but also implying a margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%. 2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the levels of '21 & '22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share of new customer business by FY '26 and hence a consequent decline in license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1% by FY '26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years. Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT '24e (vs historic avg. of 20x). Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 30 based on DCF.

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Contact for questions Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research. Kontakt für Rückfragen NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

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Quelle: dpa-Afx